In line with GA!’s aspiration to connect current events with history, you can find this week’s headlines below, provided with additional commentary from a historical perspective.
“West demands probe into reports of Georgia vote violations, Russia denies meddling”
While Moldova’s elections last week were a narrow victory for the pro-Western forces in the country, in Georgia the opposite has occurred. The pro-Russian party Georgian Dream has claimed victory with 54% of the votes. But, the Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili and opposition parties have claimed the elections were fraudulent. Observers of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) have reported irregularities at voting stations but have not outright said the elections were rigged. Meanwhile the Georgian President pointed the finger at Russia, saying these elections were a ‘Russian special operation’, seemingly referring to the Kremlin still referring to the war in Ukraine as a ‘special military operation’, instead of an invasion.
Georgia, like Moldova which we wrote about last week, used to be part of the Soviet Union. After briefly trying to establish its independence from Imperial Russia after the First World War, it was retaken by the Soviets in 1921 towards the end of the Russian Civil War. It then definitively gained independence after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. During the Rose Revolution in 2003, the former pro-Russian forces were deposed in favour of more pro-Western leaning politicians who tried to steer Georgia towards EU and NATO membership.
This did not sit well in Russia. In 2008, on the pretext of protecting minorities in the Georgian provinces of South Ossetia and Abnkhazia, the Russians invaded. A ceasefire was quickly negotiated, but Georgia lost control over those provinces and continues to see them as occupied territories. The governments of South Ossetia and Abkhazia are supported by the Russians and are not acknowledged internationally.
Russia then has a military influence on Georgian territory and has tried to also expand its political influence. Tensions have risen in Georgia since the invasion of Ukraine, which saw a new spirited push by some Georgians to join the EU and NATO. Electoral troubles were already present during elections in 2020. Georgia applied for membership of the EU in 2022 shortly after the Russian invasion of Ukraine and in 2004 already expressed its interest in joining NATO.
As written last week, the position of many of the former Soviet states, who are not part of any large multilateral organisation, remains precarious if they decide to move away from Russia and towards the West. A partial recount of the Georgian election will be launched but whether things will conclude fairly and whether Georgia can truly carve out its own course in the future, hangs in the balance.
“Trump headlines Madison Square Garden rally after vulgar, racist remarks from allies”
At a rally in New York City’s Madison Square Garden, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has potentially overplayed his hand. Before his own speech, full of the now well known hateful rhetoric, a comedian spoke to the crowd. He referred to Puerto Rico as ‘a floating island of garbage.’ Strangely, the Trump campaign was quick to distance themselves from these remarks, saying Trump did not approve of them. This is a weird apologetic tone from a candidate and a campaign who have said equally hateful things without any hesitations. Why have they tried to distance themselves? A million Puerto Ricans live in the key swing states and the Latin-American community in the US as a whole encompasses 65 million people.
Puerto Rico was a Spanish colony for nearly 400 years until the Spanish-American War of 1898. In the peace treaty after the war, it became US territory. But crucially, it did not become an official state of the United States. Instead, Puerto Rico is what is known as an ‘unincorporated organised territory.’ Unincorporated means it isn’t a state while organised means it is inhabited and has a functioning governing system. This also means that while the 3 million Puerto Ricans are US citizens, they cannot vote for the Presidential elections. While the 3 million living on the island cannot vote, the 6 million Americans with Puerto Rican roots living on the mainland can vote, of which as said 1 million live in the key swing states.
Because of the peculiar nature of the American political system, the Presidential elections are only decided in a few states where the groups of Democratic and Republican voters are evenly matched. For these elections, the swing states look to be Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Nevada and Arizona. In this graph, one can clearly see the Puerto Ricans comprise significant minorities in these states. With only tens of thousands of votes having decided these states in 2020, Trump may have shot himself in the foot then, if these groups, which were thought to be still undivided, now strongly swing towards Harris.
In the American Presidential elections the power of celebrity has also been increasingly stronger in recent years. It has been a well known moment of tension when Taylor Swift announces which candidate she will support. Famous Puerto Rican artists such as Bad Bunny, who has 45 million followers, have now come out in support of Harris after this latest Trump rally. The American elections this Tuesday will prove whether these remarks by the Trump campaign have proven a step too far.
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“Iran leader says Israeli attack should not be ‘exaggerated or downplayed’”
Last Saturday, Israel finally responded to Iran’s attack on October 1 by striking several military targets. In our historical analysis two weeks ago, we wrote about the history of the rivalry between Israel and Iran and what type of response Israel might give based upon the ‘Begin Doctrine’. A quite limited response has been Israel’s answer. It has been reported that the Americans exercised significant pressure on the Israelis to make sure their attack would not warrant an Iranian counter attack and thus escalate the situation even more. It has also been reported that officials of other states warned the Iranians hours before the attack, likely decreasing the impact of the Israeli attack. Given their geographical position and their military capacity, more of the same is to be expected in the Israel-Iran Cold War that is now no longer cold but not completely hot either.
“Japan plunged into political uncertainty after voters deliver dramatic defeat to longtime ruling party”
Snap elections in Japan have provided a surprising result. Since 1955 the Liberal Democratic party has ruled Japan nearly continuously. This party has now lost its absolute majority which it held with coalition parties. The conservative LDP has dominated the Japanese political landscape since the end of the Second World War. The large winner of these elections was the progressive Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ). Amongst other things, they want to legalise same-sex marriage, increase abortion rights, increase social welfare policies, increase Japan’s green energy efforts and institute significant tax reform. While the LDP has lost its absolute majority, it is still the largest party with 191 out of 465 seats. On the other hand, it is as stated the first time they have lost this majority and the CDPJ has increased its seats from 98 to 148. Japan, then, may have taken a progressive turn in their evolution and may have broken their long conservative and conformist political landscape.
“World way off target in tackling climate change – UN”
With COP29, the world’s annual conference on fighting climate change, being held next month in Baku, Azerbaijan, the UN has released a rather depressing update on the world reaching its climate goals. Ever since the middle 1990’s all of the UN member states have come together in the annual COP (Conference of the Parties) to discuss ways to tackle climate change. Historical breakthroughs have come at the Kyoto and Paris COP in 1997 and 2015 respectively. In Paris, all states agreed to limit climate change to an increase of 1.5 degrees by the end of this century. According to the latest update by the UN, we are nowhere near these targets. The Paris Accord of 2015 was celebrated as an enormous breakthrough in the fight against climate change, but now, nearly a decade later, not much can be celebrated on the basis of this latest UN report.
“Lithuania leftist opposition win election, eyes coalition”
As in Japan, Lithuania has also made a progressive swing after elections this Sunday. The Social Democrats won 52 seats out of the 141 seats parliament. The new government will likely continue to spend around 3% of its GDP on defence as its contribution to NATO. Fears of Russian aggression are high in Lithuania. The country used to be part of the Soviet Union, which strongly oppressed its national identity. Once part of the enormous Polish Lithuanian Commonwealth, the country was divided by Prussia and Russia towards the end of the 18th century. It regained its independence after the First World War after wars with Russia and Poland before being annexed by Stalin in 1939 as part of the Molotov-Von Ribbentrop Pact. After gaining independence again in 1991, it joined NATO in 2004. This has proved to be vital for Lithuania deciding its own course in history. This latest progressive turn then, has to be interpreted as a victory for the right of self-determination of states.
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