“Sinwar Is Dead, but Hamas Will Survive”
Yahya Sinwar, Hamas’ military leader in Gaza and the man considered to be the brain behind last years’ brutal October 7 attack, has been killed by the IDF in Gaza. Israeli soldiers attacked a building in Gaza and by coincidence finally got the man who orchestrated the violent attacks which started the past year of violence in the Middle East. With Sinwar now gone, will an opening for peace present itself and does this mean Hamas is defeated?
Israel has fought Hamas in many ways, one of them being a strategy of ‘decapitation’. This strategy focuses on eliminating the leaders of Hamas, thus creating a power vacuum within the organisation and hoping it collapses upon itself. The United States has enacted a similar strategy towards terrorist organisations ISIS and Al-Qaeda in the past. In 2011, Osama Bin Laden, leader of Al Qaeda, was killed in a raid by US special forces in Abbottabad, Pakistan. In 2019, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, leader of ISIS, was also killed by special forces in northern Syria. While both operations briefly ‘decapitated’ these organisations, new leaders have taken over and these organisations are still active. What can be said though, is it that these organisations have proven significantly less dangerous ever since they were ‘decapitated’ and have been weakened.
So what do those examples tell us about what may happen with Hamas? Well, Israel has actually acted on this strategy for decades. It killed Yahya Ayyash in 1996, the group’s founder Ahmed Yassin in 2004, and his successor Abdel Aziz Rantisi (also in 2004). Since October 7 it has already eliminated Saleh al-Arouri, Marwan Issa, Ismael Haniyeh, and Mohammed Deif. Despite all of these operations, Hamas is still around. While these operations may not have defeated Hamas, as can be seen from the examples of al-Baghdadi and Bin Laden, it is very likely to have severely weakened Hamas.
With Hamas likely weakened, does this now mean there is an opening for peace? Some of the countries which have lobbied for a ceasefire for a while now, certainly seem to think so. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken departed for his eleventh round of shuttle diplomacy since October 7 this week. The US, along with Egypt and Qatar, believe a ceasefire could now be possible after Sinwar’s death.
Yahya Sinwar had spent 23 years in an Israeli prison before being released back to Gaza in 2011 as part of a large prisoner swap deal. He was one of Hamas’ most radical leaders and the architect of October 7. His goal was to plunge the region into chaos, in which Israel would ultimately implode. He did not much care for the lives of civilians and was strongly opposed to any hostage deal because he thought the suffering of the Palestinians would turn the world against Israel. These goals have largely come true. In this sense then, Sinwar was willing to let the Palestinians suffer in order to increase the pressure on Israel. With this radical leader now removed, a leader more willing to negotiate may rise. But Hamas will not cease to exist, but because it has been weakened, it may perhaps seek to settle for a ceasefire.
“Moldova votes yes to joining EU by tiny margin”
Moldova has voted to join the EU in a referendum. The results were incredibly close: 50,5% of Moldovans eventually voted in favour of joining the EU. The results were much closer than expected. The Moldovan President Maia Sandu, who simultaneously won the first round of the presidential elections overwhelmingly, claimed Russia interfered on a large scale in the referendum, bribing as many as 150.000 voters to vote against joining the EU.
Moldova has a long history of being torn between West and East. For centuries it was part of the Ottoman Empire, until it was ceded to imperial Russia in 1812. After the First World War and the Russian Revolution, it briefly became independent in 1917 before it joined Romania a year later. The Soviet Union then threatened to invade in the summer of 1940 and bullied Romania into letting go of Moldova after which Stalin annexed the land and made it into one of the Soviet Republics. A little over a year later it would be invaded once again, this time by the Nazis and the Romanians. After the Romanians switched sides in 1944 and the Nazis were defeated, it remained part of the USSR until 1991 when it gained full independence.
However, not all of Moldova became independent. The small province of Transnistria, which is largely ethnically Russian instead of ethnically Romanian, declared its own independence in 1990. A brief civil war followed which Transnistria was able to win with the help of the Red Army still present there. The armistice put in place in 1992, is still in place at this moment. There are still an unknown number of Russian forces present in Transnistria, making the situation regarding the course of its political future very precarious. Similarly to other former USSR states such as Ukraine, the Baltics, Georgia and Armenia, Moldova has been trying to gain a better relationship with the West, as large parts of their population see the future of their country more closely aligned with the West than with Russia.
Because of this recent trend and based on the polls, the referendum was not expected to be as close as it was. With a population of 3.3 million, buying 150.000 votes is a significant number which could have influenced the outcome of the referendum. But it seems the Moldovans have gotten away with it. They now look to enshrine the goal of joining the EU in their constitution and are aiming for 2030 to achieve this.
Recent history though has shown that Russia will most likely not just let this happen. It will keep interfering in Moldovan politics and with Russian forces in Transnistria, military interference can also not be ruled out. In a way, Moldova now is in a similar situation to Georgia a few years ago. Georgia had also expressed its desire to join the EU and NATO, while Russian forces occupied pieces of Georgia in the regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. In recent years, Russian meddling has increased in Georgia and now their parliament has adopted a so-called ‘foreign agents’ bill, based on similar laws in Russia. This makes it easier to identify those with dissenting views as ‘foreign agents.’ Tensions in Georgia are high as seen by the large protests last year and this summer. Moldova then will most likely face similar challenges as it attempts to ensure its future within the EU and away from Russia.
“Seoul wants North Korean troops to leave Russia immediately”
South Korea has responded outraged to the news that North Korean troops will be deployed on the battlefield in Ukraine. While Moscow and Pyongyang deny it, intelligence sources claim some 1500 North Korean troops already are in Ukraine, with another ten thousand ready to leave. Throughout the Cold War, North Korea could rely on protection from its fellow communist power, the Soviet Union. After the USSR collapsed, Russia embraced the UN sanctions towards North Korea, creating the international isolation known today and prompting the Kim regime to start its development of nuclear weapons. Last June however, President Putin broke this isolation by concluding a security pact with Kim Jung-Un. Moscow and Pyongyang have thus rekindled their Cold War relationship, with these troops fighting in Ukraine being the result. This means North Korean troops will get their first active battlefield experience since the end of the Korean War in 1953. This has sparked fears the Kim regime is in some way preparing a part of its armed forces for confrontation with South Korea.
“Ex-general Prabowo, once accused of rights abuses, takes up presidency of world’s third-largest democracy”
Prabowo Subianto has been inaugurated as the eight Indonesian President and only the third elected by the popular vote. He has vowed to continue the growth and development of the past decade under his predecessor Joko Widodo. After Indonesia declared independence in 1945, it was ruled by authoritarian leaders Sukarno and Suharto until 1998. The country of 280 million people has been moving towards democracy ever since. However, observers fear Widodo started a rise “in old-time patronage and dynastic politics”, which if continued by Prabowo, may undermine the relatively young but enormous Indonesian democracy.
“Fethullah Gulen, Turkish cleric once blamed for failed coup attempt, dies at 83”
Fethullah Gulen, the Turkish leader of a religious movement, has died aged 83 in exile in the United States. Gulen was once an ally of sitting President Erdogan when he first came to power in 2002. Many supporters of Gulen were also voters for Erdogan. However, in the early 2010’s their relationship soured. After Erdogan foiled a coup attempt against him in 2016, Erdogan blamed Gulen for instigating said coup. It remains to be seen what affects his death will have inside Turkey. The Turkish Foreign Minister vowed to keep fighting Gulen’s organisation, which is deemed a terrorist organisation by the Turkish authorities.
“India, China arrive on border patrolling pact to resolve conflict, India’s top diplomat says”
India has announced it has reached an agreement with China to disengage from the standoff at several locations along the disputed Sino-Indian border. In 2020, Chinese and Indian soldiers attacked one another at several locations high in the Himalayas along the disputed border. These forces have been in a standoff since. This specific part of the border is in the Kashmir region. While the Kashmir conflict is mostly known for the tensions it creates between India and Pakistan and their disputed border, China and India also share a disputed border there. While the Pakistani-Indian dispute has arisen from the unclear division of British India in 1947 in this area, the Sino-Indian dispute has arisen from the fact that the British and Chinese never clearly demarcated where the border is. China and India waged two brief wars over this and other parts of the border in 1962 and 1967 and skirmishes have followed ever since. This new agreement welcomes some much wanted tranquillity in global politics and may lead to this border on the roof of the world finally being clearly defined.
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