In line with GA!’s aspiration to connect current events with history, you can find this week’s headlines below, provided with additional commentary from a historical perspective.
“Is America’s opioid epidemic finally burning out?”
For the first time in 25 years the number of overdoses in the United States as a result of the ongoing opioid crisis has decreased. Experts now wonder whether or not this might be a sign that the worst level in this crisis has been reached and that now, the crisis will finally be controlled. It is estimated more than a million Americans have died as a result of overdoses in the past decades. 2022 was the deadliest year yet, with more than 100 thousand overdoses. However, in the past twelve months, the peak of 108 thousand deaths has declined to 90 thousand. While this is of course still a staggering and tragic number, it is also a significant decrease which might indicate that the worst of the opioid crisis has been weathered.
The opioid crisis in the United States is generally described as the problem of addiction, drug abuse and overdoses as a result of opioid type painkillers. The amount of people affected by these problems started to rise dramatically in the late 1990’s and has seen a dramatic increase since 2016. The initial first wave of the opioid crisis started in the 1990’s as painkillers for chronic pain were being prescribed more. The most infamous drug in this first wave was the medicine OxyContin, produced by Purdue Pharma. This drug contained the opioid oxycodone and was marketed aggressively to pharmacists, rewarding them for prescribing it more to their customers. Purdue made enormous profits from OxyContin but has since been involved in many lawsuits which have laid partial blame for the whole crisis on the company. As a result the company declared bankruptcy in 2019. The Sackler family who owned the business have however been able to hold on to their billions of dollars of profit.
After this initial wave of the opioid crisis, several other waves followed. These included increases in heroin use, and most recently the devastating and highly addictive drug fentanyl. Fentanyl is estimated to be roughly 40 times more potent than heroin and the smallest amount can lead to overdose. Fentanyl also brings a geopolitical dimension to this problem. Most of it is produced in China and smuggled into the US via Mexican drug cartels. The US has made deals with China to stop this production.
Various explanations have been given by experts for this recent slowing of the opioid crisis as measured by the number of overdoses. The most negative explanation could be that overdoses spiked during the Covid-19 Pandemic and that numbers are now simply returning to pre pandemic levels. Other experts see the increase in treatment clinics and the handing out of anti overdose medical kits as reasons for the decrease, as well as a simple decrease in the supply of opioids available.
The most likely reason could be, however, that the crisis is ‘burning out’. This means the most vulnerable people have been affected and have passed away, resulting in less vulnerable people who could succumb to addiction and overdose. Macabre as this sounds, it has happened before with the European heroin crisis in the 1980’s and 1990’s. It is a depressing conclusion because it would mean authorities have not been able to control the crisis and it is now burning out on its own. Whatever reason for the decline in overdoses in the US, one hopes overdoses will continue to decrease over the coming years.
“Britain prepares for its third defence review in four years”
The United Kingdom will hold a third review of its armed forces in the past four years. As the challenge of Russia and China is mounting while the wars in Ukraine and the Middle east are ongoing, the British face a historical question it has had to face many times: do they prioritise their land forces or do they prioritise their naval and aerial forces?
Due to limited defence budgets over the past ten years, the UK has kept doing all its tasks, but has done them ‘decreasingly well’. These limitations are the result of two big defence projects the British have committed themselves to. First is the developments of submarines in cooperation with the Americans and Australians as part of the AUKUS defence pact. Second is the cooperation with Italy and Japan to develop a next generation fighter aircraft under the CGAP program.
This has thus left little room for the British to spend money on other projects and means it will have to choose what it will prioritise. Land forces may be needed to comply with NATO demands for ground forces to deter any possible Russian threat to continental Europe, but naval and aerial forces will be needed to counter Russian and Chinese fleets globally and to have a supportive role in NATO. Historically, the British have chosen the naval route to maintain their position on the global stage. The question is thus to what degree the British still believe they are a global superpower which must maintain a wide presence around the globe, which would mean prioritising naval activities.
The historic British focus on their navy stems of course from it being an island which must be protected. The Royal Navy thus had the main task of waging war at sea against the Spanish, French and Dutch in the 17th and 18th centuries. The navy was also crucial in transporting an army to continental Europe if Britain decided to intervene in a continental war. This was always done in order to prevent any single power from dominating Europe. As the British Empire grew, the Royal Navy became increasingly important. It was necessary to transport supplies throughout the empire as well as protecting the key strategic routes the British needed to do so. This explains the British presence in Gibraltar, Malta, Cyprus, Egypt, Singapore and Hong Kong. All were and are vital strategic choke points the Royal Navy used to control shipping routes. Throughout the nineteenth century, the Royal Navy controlled the world seas after their closest competitor, the French, had been defeated at the Battle of Trafalgar. Its hegemony was then challenged by the Germans who were unable to break it. The Americans overtook the British during the Second World War.
Knowing the historical weight this naval history carries in the UK, it seems unlikely the British will decide to shift their focus to land forces. The Royal Navy and British military still have bases around the globe in Bahrain, Oman, Cyprus, Gibraltar, Singapore and the Falklands. As a matter of pride, it seems unlikely the British will simply give up these positions and further shrink their standing on the world stage. They will most likely push for themselves to increase naval activities and for other NATO allies such as Germany and Poland to bear the brunt of continental land activities to counter the threat from Russia.
“Congo and Rwanda say peace talks in Angola will not take place”
The leaders of Congo and Rwanda will not go through with their planned peace talks in Angola. The talks were meant to start a process to end the violent rebellion of the M23 group in the North Kivu region in Congo (Democratic Republic Congo). This group first came into existence in 2012 and was supported by Rwanda and Uganda but was defeated by the DRC’s army and MONUSCO, the UN peacekeeping mission in the area. However, in 2022 the group formed again after its fighters, who had been brought to Uganda, claimed the 2013 peace deal was not being upheld. They also claimed to defend the Tutsi minority in Kivu from attacks by Rwandan Hutu militias. The tense relations between the DRC and Rwanda stem from the origins of the Rwandan Genocide in 1994. The Hutu’s who committed the genocide largely fled to, among other places, the DRC. Through this proxy conflict, Rwanda then is trying to defend the Tutsis in Kivu with the use of M23. The UN has claimed it has evidence to the fact that M23 is practically an extension of the Rwandan army. The DRC fights back through the Hutu militia it supports. Both countries used to be part of the Belgian Congo colony. It was the Belgians who originally created the ethnic separation between Hutu and Tutsi. The Rwandan Genocide saw 800 thousand people killed in 100 days and the Rwandan government is burnt on hunting down many of the perpetrators who still roam free in neighbouring countries. With these talks now not taking place, a new ceasefire does not seem likely.
“UN launches fresh attempt to resolve Libya’s election impasse”
In Libya, the head of the UN support mission in the country (UNSMIL), has announced the forming of a new committee to try and attempt to hold an election in Libya. In 2011, the Arab Spring led to the outbreak of civil war in the former Italian colony in North Africa. The UN Security Council issued a no-fly zone to protect civilians which was enforced by NATO. Dictator Moammar Gadhaffi was lynched by a mob in October 2011. After he was removed from power, a second civil war broke out between the parties who removed Gadhaffi from power and the country has been unstable and divided ever since. Different militias govern different parts of the country, even after various attempts have been made for reconciliation. Now, the UN has launched a new effort to stage elections. These elections were already supposed to be held in 2021, but did not go through because many candidates were not deemed eligible. The Libyan President who has been in power since 2021 as head of a government of national unity, has not had the support of parliament since he came to power as parliament claims his government does not have legitimacy. The UN then is now trying to reunite the political system in Libya once again, hoping that elections can be held and a new parliament installed which will support a legitimate president.
“Israel plans to double population on occupied Golan, citing threats from Syria”
The fallout of the sudden fall of the Assad regime continues to reverberate throughout the region. Israel has now announced plans to increase the number of settlers on the occupied Golan Heights, which are Syrian territory according to international law. Israel captured the strategically important Golan Heights in the Six Day war in 1967. As with the West Bank and Gaza, it was supposed to return the territory by order of UNSC Resolution 242, which we wrote about two weeks ago. However, the territory is important strategically because of its elevation. One can see Damascus on the foot of the territory on the eastern side of it, and one could target Tel Aviv on the Western side from atop the heights. Furthermore, the Golan Heights are crucial for Israel’s water supply because two rivers flow into Israel from the mountains. Being in control of their springs is thus vital for Israel. The Golan Heights were attacked by Syria again in the Yom Kippur War in 1973, but Israel managed to hang on and a Demilitarised Zone was established to separate the parties. Due to the power vacuum which has now emerged in Syria, Israel has pounced on the opportunity to improve its position. Israel destroyed virtually all of the Syrian military’s hardware, after it was left abandoned by the fled troops of Assad and Israel reoccupied the DMZ and the eastern flank of Mount Hermon, overlooking Damascus. Israeli officials have stated soldiers will remain there until the situation in Syria becomes more clear. The HTS rebels and many Arab states have condemned Israel’s actions. While the occupied West Bank has generally been known to house increasing numbers of settlers, the Golan Heights were not the target of similar policies. Israel claimed annexation of the territory in 1981, which has been recognized only by the US. The Druze minority living on the Golan Heights seems to accept it being ruled by the Israelis, who now thus seek to increase their number of settlers on the Golan Heights too, in order to strengthen their position and their claim of the territory.
“Macron has a new prime minister but the same old problems”
Francois Bayrou has been named by President Emmanuel Macron as France’s new Prime Minister. He will face the daunting task of getting a budget for 2025 passed by the French National Assembly. His predecessor Barnier was toppled by a historic vote of no-confidence we wrote about last week, and how the effects of the only other occasion in the history of the Fifth Republic backfired against those who supported the no-confidence vote. Bayrou, like Macron, is also a centrist and can thus also not count on a parliamentary majority and will have to face attacks from both the left and right. In the wake of the no-confidence vote, Marine Le Pen has surged in the polls for the French Presidential elections in 2027. Macron could be faced with a non-functioning government if a budget is not passed. The historic political tensions in France have not been seen since the late 1950’s and early 1960’s and it is up to Bayrou to get France back on a stable course so that it can remain a leader in Europe and a supplier of military aid to Ukraine in the fight against Russia.
“South Korea court begins Yoon’s impeachment trial process”
BBC
In South Korea a process of impeachment has begun against President Yoon, who attempted to install martial law two weeks ago. We wrote about the history of South Korea and its experience with martial law and military dictatorships last week too. A motion to start this process passed last Saturday, with 203 votes to 97, barely passed the necessary boundary of 200. It is believed 12 members of Yoon’s party voted along with the opposition who held a majority. This has caused the governing party to fall into chaos as the party leadership had threatened to resign if parliamentary leader Han could not get all of his party members on board in order to throw out the motion to start the impeachment procedures. South Korea’s constitutional court will now oversee the process and has set a date of December 27 to have the first hearings. It must come to a decision in six months and if Yoon is impeached, new elections have to be held within 60 days. In the previous two instances a South Korean president faced impeachment, the court reversed one decision and upheld the other.
Leave a Reply