Why France’s government collapsed (again), and what Macron might do next

The Conversation

The French government has collapsed again. French prime minister, François Bayrou, failed to win a confidence vote in parliament this past week. Bayrou was France’s sixth Prime Minister since the election of President Emmanual Macron back in 2017. He is also the second PM under Macron to be removed just in the last year. His government was formed last December and remained chaotic for much of this past year.

French politics has become increasingly divided, as the country faces polarisation, a trend increasing across the world and among most democratic nations.

At the heart of this is France’s fiscal crisis. Public debt is around 114% of GDP with markets and credit agencies expressing concern. Recently France’s credit rating was downgraded, thanks to debt and instability. When credit ratings fall, it makes borrowing more difficult which adds difficulty to negotiating budgets. This has contributed to the government’s budgets struggling to pass. 

Macron and his prime ministers have made several moves to try and fix this such as raising the retirement age and cutting spending, but this has been met with resistance from the general public and the political left. 

Bayrou called this confidence vote himself, framing it as a choice between doing something about France’s fiscal crisis versus chaos and doing nothing.

Parliament is largely fractured between three camps. The first is the left, including the New Popular Front (NFP), which includes the Socialist Party (PS), The Ecologists – Europe Ecology, The Greens (EELV), the French Communist Party (PCF), and La France Insoumise (LFI). These parties first ran together in the 2022 legislatures under the banner of The New Ecological and Social People’s Union (NUPES). The NFP was formed in the run up to the 2024 legislatives as they became the largest faction in the French parliament. 

That is, on the surface. Both the NFP and its predecessor NUPES were and are deeply divided. The biggest divide is among the PS with its more centrist members that dominated the party leadership until the party’s electoral collapse in 2017, being hesitant of working with the left, particularly with LFI, due to the tendencies of its controversial leader, Jean-Luc Mélenchon. 

At the moment the party is divided between those closer to François Hollande who is the former president of France from 2012 to 2017, and represents the more centrist wing of the party. His presidency was marked by several unpopular decisions including the tightening of laws around security and an economic policy of austerity. Many on the left blame him primarily for the collapse of PS, which used to be one of France’s two main parties up until 2017. 

The other wing represents Olivier Faure, who is further on the party’s left. He has been more open to the party collaborating with the left though he has also had his own issues with Mélenchon . 

In both 2022 and 2024, several more centrist members of PS ran outside the alliance, defying the party-line. 

Both EELV and PCF have been largely ok with the alliance but the main contention is between PS and LFI. LFI leader Mélenchon has been criticised for his authoritarian leadership style, accusations of anti-semitism, and NATO-sceptic foreign policy. 

On anti-semitism his supporters argue he is simply standing up for the Palestinian people but critics point to comments he’s made regarding French anti-semitism being “residual”, conspiracies about an anti-semitic attack that took place in 2011, and comments downplaying French collaborationism during the Second World War. 

On NATO, some interpret his attacks as repeating Russian talking points, however he argues that he condemns all imperialism, likening Russian imperialism to American imperialism worldwide. 

The second faction is the National Rally Party (RN) represented by Marine Le Pen and her protégé. Le Pen took over the party from her father, a notorious anti-semite and holocaust denier, and made the party more acceptable to much of the French mainstream. Critics still argue their policies are bigoted toward immigrants and Muslims, though the criticism is far less harsh than it was 10 years ago. 

Le Pen took the party to the mainstream, coming 3rd in the 2012 Presidential election, and 2nd in the 2017 and 2022 election.

 2027 was supposed to be her last run but a court ruling over misuse of EU funds this year has resulted in her being barred from running, making her protégé, Bardella the favourite to win. As far as individual parties go, RN is the largest. 

Finally there is Renaissance, representing a number of liberal centrist parties, including those of French President Macron. Over the years the alliance has lost support, coming to the scene with a dominant showing in 2017, before slowly bleeding support in 2022 and 2024. 

Due to a lack of a majority, Renaissance worked with The Republicans (LR), a smaller party split between those wanting to align with Renaissance and those who want to align with RN. France up until 2017 was largely dominated by two major parties, the PS and LR, with a series of smaller parties adding on. However both parties have declined significantly since 2017, leading to a realignment in French politics. 

Bayrou comes from LR, and was Macron’s attempt to form a government acceptable to RN. However, the government has been forced to make concessions and deals with both RN and NFP throughout the past year, leading to an unstable rule. 

Now concessions failed and the government collapsed. Renaissance is attempting to court PS and form a new government, something both sides are open to. If PS were to defect, it would pose a major blow to NFP. However Faure, and party leadership are demanding significant concessions, including steep tax hikes and renegotiating Macron’s raising of the retirement age. 

As of now French politics remains divided. The next President will be elected in 2027, as Macron is term-limited. Legislative elections must be held by 2029 but can be called earlier if the President dissolves parliament. 

Renaissance are now reaching out to PS who are at a crossroads, their decision could shape not only the party’s future, but the dynamics of French politics for years to come. The outcome of these negotiations are vital to France’s economic future. But aside from affecting internal French politics, it could have ripple effects across Europe as credit agencies look at how effective France is at managing its public debt.