Canada election results: Who are the key winners and losers?
Canada recently held an election after a turbulent few months. Canada’s incumbent Liberal Party has won its fourth straight election, giving recently sworn-in Prime Minister Mark Carney an electoral mandate after he replaced former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. The Liberals won 169 seats, just three short of a majority. Canada’s Liberals seemed to be heading for an inevitable defeat a few months ago, as it appeared the Conservative Party was set to reclaim power as incumbent PM Trudeau’s popularity was consistently down.
Blamed for the housing crisis and rising cost of living, many of the Liberal’s policies, such as the Consumer Carbon Tax and a relatively open migration policy, were unpopular with the general public.
However, their fortunes turned this year. First, Trudeau announced his resignation and that he did not intend to seek election for a fourth term. Then, Canada was openly threatened by its neighbour, the United States, and its new president, Donald Trump, who threatened tariffs and the annexation of Canada. This gave Trudeau and his successor, Carney, the opportunity to present themselves as patriotic Canadian leaders who stood defiantly against Trump and in defence of Canadian sovereignty.
Due to their dominance in Canadian electoral history, Canada’s Liberals have been called the country’s “natural governing party.” The party ruled Canada for around 70 years in the 20th Century. In the 21st Century, they’ve been in power for almost 16 years, compared to a little over 9 years for the Conservative opposition.
They were almost replaced as Canada’s dominant centre-left party in 2011 by the New Democratic Party (NDP), which became the official opposition that year. However, the death of popular NDP leader Jack Layton, his replacement by a less popular leader, and the rise of the charismatic Trudeau ensured the Liberals were able to come back to power in 2015, and the NDP fell back to third.
In this past election, the Liberals broke through into the west, winning Northern Manitoba and Northern Saskatchewan from the NDP and the Conservatives, respectively. However, they suffered some losses in traditionally stronger Liberal areas that prevented them from securing a majority.
So, where do the other parties stand? The Conservative opposition gained 24 seats, but their leader, Pierre Pollievre, hurt by his associations with Trump, lost his seat. Pollievre’s being from the Ottawa metropolitan area, known for having large numbers of government workers, didn’t help, as Carney spoke of cutting bureaucracy and eliminating government jobs. Despite losing his seat, Pollievre says he is staying on as leader.
The Conservatives made significant gains in Ontario, winning many traditional Liberal seats. They made especially significant gains in the Greater Toronto Area. However, the Liberals were able to reclaim a key seat, Toronto St. Paul, which the Conservatives flipped in a by-election last year. About ⅙ seats changed hands this election.
The largest party outside the two main parties was the Bloc Québécois (BQ), which has been hurt by a decline in the popularity of Quebec separatism. A March 2025 poll by Leger showed 62% were against independence, with only 29% in favour. The Bloc lost ⅓ of its seats, going from 33 to 22.
The Green Party, which held two seats, also lost one, merely holding on to its one seat in Victoria, British Columbia.
However, the biggest losers must be the aforementioned NDP. They suffered an 11.5% drop in vote percentage and lost 17 out of 24 seats. In the past, they had no representation in the Atlantic provinces or Saskatchewan. Not only did they not make any breakthrough in these provinces, but they also lost all representation in Ontario, the most populous province.
In addition, the party lost official party status. For a party to gain or retain official party status, it must hold 12 seats. This status has benefits such as additional funding, office space in parliament, guaranteed speaking time, and representation in various debates among other perks.
The NDP came into existence in the 1960s, entering parliament in 1962 and retaining official party status throughout except from 1993 to 1997 after falling to just nine seats in the 1993 election. In 2003, the party elected the popular Layton to leadership and grew the next four elections, becoming the official opposition in 2011. However, after Layton’s death, the party replaced him with Tom Mulcair, under whom they lost 59 seats out of 103. They then replaced Mulcair with Jagmeet Singh, the first Canadian Sikh party leader who has led the party since 2017. Under Singh, the NDP lost 20 seats in the 2019 and 17 in this year’s elections. His only victory electorally on the national stage has been gaining a single seat in the 2021 election.
Many blame this loss on the NDP entering a confidence-supply agreement with the Liberals, where, in exchange for policy concessions, the NDP was tied to the unpopular Trudeau term. Additionally, when they broke the confidence-supply deal, they did not bring down the Liberal government to prevent a Conservative majority, which seemed likely at the time. Others blame the rally around the Liberal Party on this most recent surge of nationalism against the U.S. and Trump. We will see where the party’s future is, as Singh resigned following Monday’s defeat.
As for Canada, the Liberals have promised a strong stance against Trump. Carney promised not to give in to Trump’s threats, and he had a difficult task ahead of him. He must stand up to Trump, address the issues with the Canadian economy, and represent Canada on the world stage at an increasingly turbulent time of shifting alliances. How Carney plays his cards will determine how Canadians remember him for years to come.
Pakistan says intelligence suggests Indian military action likely soon
Pakistan and India recently saw escalation in the Kashmir region following a terror attack on April 22. The attackers separated the men from women and children before asking the names of the men. They would then target the Hindus based on those with Hindu names. They killed 26 men in total.
The attack took place in a popular tourist spot called Baisaran Valley, known for its lush hilltop meadow surrounded by dense pine forests. It had 1,000 tourists and 300 local service providers.
The terrorists included two Pakistani nationals, causing a series of border skirmishes and escalations between India and Pakistan. India has for years accused Pakistan of supporting terrorism in its territory. Now, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishanka are pointing the finger at Pakistan once again for this attack. To look at where we are, we must look to history.
Both India and Pakistan were under British rule until 1947 when the British partitioned them along religious lines as they left the region. Under British rule, Kashmir was a princely state, with the local prince given autonomy so long as he aligned with the Brits on foreign and defence policy.
When the British left, they did not decide on the fate of Kashmir, leaving it to the prince of Kashmir, who was Hindu. He initially wanted to remain independent. However, after Pakistani-backed militias attacked Kashmir, he agreed to join India in exchange for military support. This was despite Kashmir being a Muslim-majority province.
Notably, while the division was along religious lines, unlike Pakistan, which was explicitly a state for Muslims, India, despite being a Hindu majority and having cases of extreme violence against the Muslim minority, was officially a secular state which retained a sizable Muslim minority. To this day, India has the world’s third-largest Muslim population, with over 14% of the population being Muslim. This is despite massive anti-Muslim rhetoric by the ruling BJP in India and bigotry against Muslims, especially in the North of India.
After independence, Pakistan and India fought in the first of four wars against each other. This first one ended in stalemate, with the disputed Kashmir territory divided. The second took place in 1965 and ended in a statement with no territorial changes. However, as Pakistan was the aggressor in the war, it backfired on them and led to instability against Pakistan’s then-military dictator, Ayub Khan.
The third war was in 1971, and unlike before, it was a clear Indian victory. India intervened in the Pakistani civil war to support East Pakistan/Bangladesh in their war of independence against Pakistan.
The fourth and final war was the Kargil War in 1999. Unlike the previous three wars, this war was after both countries had developed nuclear weapons and was the biggest war between two nuclear powers to date. The war was another Indian victory, and the Pakistani military, despite organising the operation that caused the war without the civilian government’s authority, used its loss to justify its coup later that year.
Pakistan, in addition to traditional warfare, has a long history of supporting terror groups to destabilise India, especially in Kashmir. Notably, Pakistan was linked to the 2008 Mumbai attacks, India’s worst terror attack in history. Pakistan, for its part, denies involvement in the most recent attacks but has done so in the past as well.
It was security concerns that propelled Modi to the position of Prime Minister. In his long political career he has stoked anti-muslim and anti-Pakistan sentiment. Now in the face of one of India’s worst terrorist attacks, and the worst under his administration, he is under pressure domestically to respond forcefully.
On Wednesday, Pakistani intelligence said that it has credible evidence that India is preparing to attack Pakistan, based on this justification. The UN, the United States, and other world powers have urged the two not to enter a full-scale war and endanger peace. Britain has called for calm between its Indian and Pakistani communities and advised against all travel to Jammu and Kashmir, with exceptions.
This comes after multiple ceasefire violations, including India saying it responded to firings from Pakistan on Tuesday. Sources say Modi has decided how to respond to the Indian army chiefs. It remains to be seen if we will see another war between nuclear powers in this ever-uncertain time.
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