‘Entire families’ killed in Syria fighting, UN says
A few months ago, many watched crowds of Syrians across the world rejoice when the nearly quarter-century rule of Bashar al-Assad came to an end. Assad and his family fled to Russia and Syria was taken over by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, a Sunni Islamist group made up of a merger of various other Sunni militant groups involved in the Syrian Civil War. HTS’ leader, Abu Mohammad al-Joulani, offered much hope to the world as he promised to bring Syria together and move past the history of sectarianism and violence. After almost 14 years of violence and bloodshed, Syria seemed to be on the verge of a new chapter. Despite this, some critics remained sceptical due to HTS’s Islamist roots.
However, recent events showcased that moving past the cycle of hate and violence is not as easy as ousting one dictator. Last week, forces loyal to Assad attacked pro-government forces. This resulted in an outbreak of sectarian violence as pro-government forces entered coastal provinces populated mainly by the Alawite religious minority, which Assadโs family was part of, and committed various atrocities against Alawite civilians. To understand the dynamics of Syria, we must look at Syria’s history, demography, and political background.
The state of Syria, as we now know it, was formed in the aftermath of World War I. The territory was previously in the hands of the Ottoman Empire for the past 400 years before a short-lived Kingdom of Syria was formed by Faisal I of the Hashemite family, the royal family of Jordan and Iraq (until 1958). Syria was then in the hands of a French mandate before French troops left after World War II.
The first Syrian Republic was formed in 1946 and ended in 1949 following a coup by members of Syrian armed forces following Syria’s defeat in the first Arab-Israeli war, as well as a tumultuous domestic political situation. There are also allegations of CIA and American support for the coup, though this is highly controversial.
The new government joined Nasserist Egypt in 1958 before another coup by Syrian elites, upset at Nasser’s consolidation of power, ended the United Arab Republic. Then, in 1963, the Ba’ath party, of which Assad’s father was part of, took power in another coup. The same year, a Ba’athist coup took place in Iraq; however, that government would be overthrown in a coup later that year.
The Ba’ath party then had an internal split in 1966, resulting in another coup and a political split between the Iraqi Baathists and Syrian Baathists, before Assad’s father, Hafez al-Assad, took power in a coup in 1970, also known as the “Corrective Movement.” This is to say that Syria’s early years of independence were marked by instability and chaos. However, following Assad’s (Hafez) seizure of power, this was largely eliminated as he was able to consolidate power within Syria and put down any revolt. The elder Assad ruled with an iron fist for 30 years before passing the country to his son, who ruled for nearly 25 more.
Given their grip on power, it is notable that the Assad family are religious minorities. They belong to the Shia Alawite sect of Islam, whereas the majority of Syrians are Sunni Muslims. Thus, in the 55-year rule of the Assad family, there was an elevation of Alawites into prominent positions of power at the expense of the Sunni majority, with the Assad’s utilising sectarian tensions to maintain control.
Despite making up 10-15% of the population, Alawites have been prominent in the military, government and intelligence services for over 50 years. Additionally, Sunni Islamists faced harsh repression and crackdowns, such as the crackdown on the Muslim Brotherhood in Hama in 1982.
Fast forward to 2011, and the Arab Spring reaches Syria as Syrian society begins to rebel against Bashar al-Assad (Hafezโs son). Syria, for the first time in decades, is at risk of collapsing, and in response, Assad’s regime cracks down viciously on protest. This further escalates, leading to brewing resentment. Chemical weapon attacks on Syrian villages and other atrocities by Syrian security forces only furthered the hatred toward Assad.
In a country with such strong sectarian divides, this hate for Assad is then pushed onto the Alawite population, who are seen as the primary beneficiaries of his regime. Thus, when the Assad regime fell in December 2024, Syria’s Sunni majority, left ostracised from power, felt they now had an opportunity to seek retribution for decades of oppression.
The same dynamic occurred in Iraq after 2003, when the regime of Saddam Hussein, a Sunni, ruled over Iraq, where the population was majority Shia. Thus, because of Saddam’s patronisation of Sunnis, many Shias grew resentful, and when his regime fell, Shia militias committed atrocities against Sunni civilians now that they had the chance.
The Syrian government claims it will investigate these crimes and bring the perpetrators to justice. However, it is worth remembering the fragile state of the country and that the wounds of decades of sectarian violence will not go away overnight. Will Syria fall back into a pattern of chaos as it saw before the Assad family, will it fall to another sectarian dynasty, or can it truly heal the scars of the past century? Only time will tell.
Trump imposes sweeping 25% steel and aluminium tariffs. Europe immediately retaliates
The United States and the Trump administration imposed sweeping tariffs on steel and aluminum, which are set to drive up prices on several consumer goods. Unlike previous tariffs, these tariffs were not targeted at Canada, Mexico, or China but at the entire world, including other U.S. allies such as Australia and the European Union.
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese criticised the measures but defended Australia’s decision not to take countermeasures, arguing that they would only hurt economic growth. The EU, however, responded more swiftly and aggressively, imposing counter-tariffs on U.S. products such as boats, bourbon, and motorbikes. It is worth noting these tariffs primarily target products made in mostly Republican states as part of a targeted counter-attack.
Trump had previously imposed a tariff on steel in his first term, but the Biden administration, while not removing it, made exemptions for certain U.S. allies, which Trump has now removed. Additionally he had imposed a 10% tariff on aluminium which was now raised to 25%.
At the same time, the U.S. has imposed tariffs on Mexico and Canada, though companies can avoid paying the tariff if they comply with USMCA, a trade deal Trump had negotiated in his first term. Canada has already imposed counter-tariffs against the U.S. as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau took a defiant stand against the U.S., and public opinion of the U.S. has tanked in the EU and Canada.
A recent YouGov poll of various countries in Europe showed that those expressing disapproval outnumbered those expressing approval in every country, with the exception of Italy, where approval and disapproval percentages are tied at 42% each. In Denmark, who Trump has threatened with tariffs and military action as part of his efforts to buy Greenland, this was most stark, with only 20% approval and 74% disapproval. A poll by Ipsos showed that 68% of Canadians think less of the U.S. because of Trump’s tariffs.
Canada also recently imposed tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, which resulted in countermeasures by China against Canada. We are in the midst of a trade war as countries seek to protect their industries at the expense of others.
In American history, one can think of the Smoot-Hawley, which passed following the 1929 Stock Market Crash. Some American historians credit it with worsening the economic crisis and turning a recession into a depression by causing other countries to impose counter-tariffs and shutting down global trade.
The global economy has been rocked recently due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russo-Ukrainian War’s disruption to global supply chains. While inflation has decreased since its peak in 2022-23, this new trade war is set to up-end any progress made.
However, it is worth looking at the political consequences as well. In recent years, incumbent leaders and parties have faced defeat and losses in most countries, barring some exceptions. This is mainly due to public anger rising over an increased cost of living. The series of tariffs are set to raise prices further on a range of new items. This means that economic turmoil and the cost of living will increase, leading to more public anger. Political leaders in Canada and Europe are currently seeing a rallying effect as anger is mainly directed at Trump. However, they face a difficult number of years in which they will have to govern a populace that becomes poorer and angrier.
As this trade war intensifies, the system of free trade and economic alliances is also breaking down. Smoot-Hawley helped usher in a chaotic 30s. COVID-19, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and now this newfound trade war risks making the 2020s similarly chaotic.
Greenland’s opposition wins election dominated by independence and Trump
Greenland recently held its parliamentary election, which was dominated by questions of independence from Denmark and the comments of United States President Donald Trump. Greenland’s independence movement has been growing for years as the region faces high rates of alcoholism, unemployment, and poverty. Many pro-independence voices blame the condition of Greenland on Danish rule.
Unionists, however, counter that Greenland depends on Danish subsidies and that Danish taxpayers pay for the Greenlandic population.
In the midst of this, U.S. President Trump has unveiled a foreign policy of expansionism and used threats (both economic and military) against U.S. allies such as Denmark. The U.S. has tried to buy Greenland several times, including during Trump’s first term. However, now, as Greenlandic independence is more popular, the U.S. has taken a more aggressive stance under Trump’s second administration.
So, how did this affect the election? Well, the winners of the election were the opposition Demokraatit party, which historically supported unionism with Denmark and now supports gradual independence instead of the more hardline stance of the current government.
This signals a shift toward the centre and political establishment like we have seen in Canada and the European Union. In Canada, the Liberal Party of Justin Trudeau managed a miraculous recovery following Trudeau’s strong stance against Trump.
In Norway, the incumbent Labour Party, which was lagging for years in the polls, has managed a recovery as former Prime Minister and NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg joined the cabinet, reinforcing confidence in the government regarding foreign policy. Additionally, the percentage of Norwegians who want to join the European Union has increased to 40%.
Now, while independence remains popular in Greenland, a more cautious approach is preferred. Many Greenlandic people have realised that while they may not wish to be part of Denmark, they must be careful how they separate. If done hastily, Greenland could risk falling to American domination and annexation, reinforcing previous colonial rule and exploitation patterns.
The final ruling bars far-right Georgescu from Romanian vote
Romanian far-right populist Calin Georgescu has lost a ruling that barred him from running in the May presidential Election.
Georgescu had a career in diplomacy before entering politics in recent years. Last year, he was a candidate in the Presidential election, initially starting off as a fringe candidate before gaining traction and ultimately making the second round. He has been described as far-right and a conspiracy theorist, with his beliefs including arguing that climate change is a global scam and the moon landing is fake. He also promoted COVID-19 misinformation.
He has also argued that Romania should pursue a more independent foreign policy, not aligning with any major bloc (NATO or Russia/China). He has also claimed in the past that the Romanian Revolution, which led to democracy in Romania, was a plot by the West to steal Romania’s resources.
Georgescu saw a major uptick in support during the campaign, particularly on social media and among young people. Proponents argue he represented a protest against Romania’s current establishment, which is known for being deeply corrupt. However, authorities and critics argued that investigations found the involvement of another state actor and that the growth was not organic.
Georgescu has criticized the United States and the West for their role in supporting Ukraine, including giving weapons. He has said the situation is manipulated, and he will end Romaniaโs aid to Ukraine. Because of this, many suspect he has backing from Russia, which has been known to support far-right candidates and parties across Europe and North America in the interest of sowing chaos and distrust.
Additionally, the Russian state has been found promoting misinformation online, including on social media platforms. This has led to an investigation against Georgescu, and now, after a final ruling, he is barred from running in the rescheduled Presidential elections in May.
However, Georgescu is one of many pro-Russian candidates in Europe, and while he may have been barred, the sentiment he stirred up will not go away. Across the West broadly and in Romania especially, there is a growing mistrust of the establishment and the “deep state,” and people are turning toward populist alternatives. In Romania, where the ruling parties have had multiple cases of corruption against them, Russia has a prime opening to exploit existing grievances against a political elite that many see as using this case to secure their own power.
Philippine ex-leader Duterte is being flown to The Hague to face charges of crimes against humanity
Former Filipino President Rodrigo Duterte is being flown to the Hague to face charges of “Crimes against Humanity” for his policy toward drug dealers/users during his presidency. Duterte was known for promoting a very hardline policy against drug use, including extrajudicial killings by police.
The International Criminal Court (ICC) has been investigating the crackdown on drug use by Duterte both during his time as Mayor of Davao and as President. Security forces estimate 6,000 deaths from his crackdown, while human rights organisations estimate up to 30,000 deaths.
Duterte was arrested at Manilla International Airport after arriving from Hong Kong with his family. His daughter, Sara Duterte, is currently the Vice President and facing impeachment. She is in the midst of a feud with President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Romualdez Marcos Jr., whom she criticised for allowing the ICC to arrest her father. She argues that the ICC has no authority or jurisdiction in the Philippines.
The Philippines was a state party but withdrew following the ICC’s investigation into Duterte. This was during Duterte’s presidency. Duterte had been under investigation since 2011 when he was Mayor, and then as President, he pulled out of the Rome Statute.
His successor, Marcos Jr., was initially an ally but fell out with him and refused to protect him, arguing that the arrest was justified and proper. In a previous analysis, we discussed the feud between Marcos Jr. and the Duterte family. Despite this, Marcos Jr. has refused to rejoin the court. Still, its cooperation with the ICC, coupled with investigations into Sara Duterte, is a significant blow for the Duterte family.
Kurds in Turkey cautiously hopeful about possible new PKK peace process
The founder of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), Abdullah รcalan, recently called on PKK militants to lay down arms and initiate a ceasefire after more than 46 years of conflict with the Turkish government.
The PKK was founded in 1978 during a tumultuous period in Turkish history when terrorist attacks by both far-left and far-right militants were common. During this period, far-right Turkish Nationalist groups like the Grey Wolves would often target Kurds.
The Kurds are an ethnic minority group spread across Turkey, Syria, Iraq, and Iran. They are sometimes called the largest nation without a state. In the context of Turkey, they predominantly live in the Southeast of the country, and Kurdish nationalism has often been suppressed.
The history of Kurds is complex. During World War I, there were many Kurds who aligned with the Young Turks government in its genocide against Christian minorities like the Armenians, Pontiac Greeks, and Assyrians. Others resisted, seeking to break away from the collapsing Ottoman Empire. The Young Turks government, which was primarily Turkish nationalists, used the rebellious Kurds as justification for deportations.
When Turkey gained independence, Kurdish society was primarily tribal and Islamic, which stood in the way of the Turkish state’s modernisation, secularisation, and westernisation efforts under the first Turkish President, Mustafa Kemal Atatรผrk. Many Kurds rebelled and faced deportations and pogroms. The Kurdish language was banned even in private, and the government did not recognise Kurds but called them “mountain Turks” until 1991.
The violence largely stopped by the 1930s as the state viewed Kurdish separatists as subdued and no longer a threat. However, cultural suppression remained. In the 1970s, as Turkey faced a period of extreme political violence, there was a Kurdish ethnic revival. And as the Turkish Far-Right nationalists began targeting minority groups like the Kurds, separatist sentiments started brewing with the PKK being formed.
The conflict between the PKK and the Turkish state was incredibly deadly, with thousands of civilians being murdered both by PKK militants and Turkish security forces. Turkey, along with the United States and the European Union, recognise the PKK as a terrorist organisation.
The PKK’s leader, รcalan, was captured by the Turkish state in 1999 and has remained in prison since.
Since Turkey’s current President Recep Tayyip Erdoฤan came to power, first as Prime Minister in 2003, repression against Kurds eased with Erdogan initially promoting more minority rights than the Kemalist establishment. However, after facing increasing unpopularity in the mid 2010s, and going into coalition with the ultra-nationalist Milliyetรงi Hareket Partisi (MHP), repression intensified again.
Additionally, with the war in Syria and the rise of the People’s Defense Units (YPG), a Syrian Kurdish separatist group which Turkey claims has links to the PKK, Turkey launched various offensives into Syria to suppress Kurdish nationalism there.
Now, with the call for a ceasefire, Kurds in Turkey, for the first time in ages, have hope for more peace and rights. However, whether the Turkish state can agree to a solution that will provide Kurdish separatists with enough concessions to end militant rebellion once and for all remains to be seen.
Leave a Reply