Below are some of this weeks biggest stories in international politics. Two of these have been provided with an extended historical analysis.
“Israeli minister denounces UN peacekeepers as fighting rages”
This week in Lebanon, Israeli forces clashed with the UN Peacekeeping mission in the area, UNIFIL (United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon). This comes after a long trend of animosity between Israel and the UN. UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres has been declared a ‘persona non-grata’ by the Israeli foreign minister and the Israelis have claimed many times that the UN is turned against them. They claim UNIFIL aids Hezbollah and is allowing Hezbollah to use UNIFIL locations as cover, to which there is some evidence as seen by Hezbollah tunnels discovered a few hundred metres from UNIFIL compounds. Conversely, Hezbollah claims UNIFIL helps the IDF.
The UNIFIL mission was established in 1978 after the first Israeli incursions into Lebanon by the UN Security Council with 12 votes to 0 (China did not vote and the USSR and Czechoslovakia abstained). Over the years, the mission has grown to some ten thousand troops from dozens of countries, tasked with monitoring the situation in southern Lebanon and practically creating a buffer between Israel and Hezbollah. If one were to be harsh, it can be said UNIFIL has failed because of the multiple clashes which have occurred along this border since 1978. But what would have happened if UNIFIL had not been in place over the past 46 years along this violent border? Research shows UN peace missions may not always be fully successful, but they do prevent the situation from being worse than it could have been.
In Rwanda, on the eve of the genocide in 1994, the Hutu’s killed 10 Belgian UN peacekeeping soldiers. As a result the Belgian and French forces left, leaving a much smaller and weaker force behind, since the Belgians and French provided most personnel and material. In a way, this enabled the Hutu’s to act out their genocide over the 100 days afterwards without any resistance. A larger and stronger UN mission in Rwanda would not have prevented genocide completely, but it may have led to less violence. If UNIFIL is completely or fully withdrawn, it won’t lead to Israel committing genocide, but it does mean the IDF hasn’t got anybody watching them and violence may reach higher levels than at this moment.
The Rwandan example and that of other failed peace missions such as in Srebrenica, where an under-equipped Dutch force could not prevent the genocide of 8000 Bosnians, have shaped our perception that UN peacekeeping missions do not work. However many of the success stories are forgotten: in Cambodia, Liberia, Croatia, East-Timor, Côte d’Ivoire, Namibia and Sierra Leone, these missions were successful because they were accompanied with a successful diplomatic effort. In Sierra Leone, a UN mission between 1999 and 2006 oversaw a complete disarmament while the West African organisation ECOWAS guided the diplomatic efforts.
The history of the relation between Israel and the UN is peculiar. In a way, Israel owes its existence to the UN after the partition plan of 1947. This plan, which was very beneficial to Israel, was put forward by the UN Security Council. For now, UNIFIL is here to stay. While it may not be that effective, without it the situation may have been even worse. And if UNIFIL is supported by a strong diplomatic peace process, it may even become a success.
“China makes major show of force with war games near Taiwan”
On Monday, China started a new large-scale military exercise on the sea and in the air around Taiwan. This provocation came after Taiwanese leader Lai Ching-te vowed to “resist annexation” of the island, and insisted Beijing and Taipei were “not subordinate to each other.” This exercise entailed the largest amount of aircraft monitored by Taiwan in one day ever. When looking at the map, it is clear China is trying to intimidate Taiwan. Six large squares where wargames took place encircle the island.
This is not the first time China has responded with large wargames after someone claimed Taiwan was not theirs. In August 2022, Nancy Pelosi, then Speaker of the House of Representatives, visited the island. In Beijing’s eyes this was seen as an indirect acknowledgement of Taiwan’s independence, as Pelosi was second in line to the presidency and like President Biden of the Democratic Party. China responded by announcing military exercises in five areas, also surrounding the island, similar to this week’s wargames.
Towards the end of the Chinese Civil War in 1949, the Nationalists fled mainland China to Taiwan and remained there as a government in exile. The Communists on the mainland have claimed Taiwan as theirs ever since, but for most of the Cold War did not have the capacity to do much about it. They have claimed Taiwan through the ‘One China’ policy, stating that both mainland China and Taiwan are part of the People’s Republic. China does not allow relations with any nation which acknowledges Taiwanese independence and forces any countries which wish to have diplomatic relations with China to acknowledge Taiwan is officially part of China. Since China is a much more important factor in international politics, nearly all countries oblige to these demands, circumnavigating this by simply opening consulates or ‘Taiwan Offices’ to maintain relations with Taiwan. This situation is, in a way, a stalemate or armistice of the Chinese Civil War.
Since the end of the Civil War, Taiwan has developed into a highly sophisticated economy, mainly due to its role in producing semiconductors. Since China joined the WTO in 2001 and started its atmospheric economic growth, its government has created the military capacity to be more belligerent towards Taiwan. Analysts believe China will want to reunite with Taiwan before the 100 year anniversary of the People’s Republic in 2049.
Alongside that proclamation from the Chinese side, President Obama’s ‘Pivot to Asia’ means the US is now also heavily involved, mainly through the supply of weapons to Taiwan. The geopolitical power struggle which has ensued between China and the US in the past decade strongly centres on Taiwan because of its strategic position and value to the world economy. Only time will tell if a military operation to take the island by force is in the cards and feasible. Only time will tell if such an event occurs and what impact it may then have on the world. The tense situation could last forever, China could launch a military operation to force unification, potentially triggering war with the US, or hopefully China will relinquish its demands and Taiwan can become a proper independent nation and join the UN.
“US to send anti-missile system and troops to Israel, Pentagon says”
The United States will send a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system (THAAD) to Israel, along with the necessary troops to operate this system. This marks a highly unusual deployment of US forces on Israeli soil. In the past, Israel has gotten much material military support from the US, but the US did not have boots on the ground in the previous wars in the 1960’s and 1970’s. US ships and planes did cooperate in countering Iran’s recent attacks. The decision to send a THAAD has come after Iran’s large scale ballistic missile attack two weeks ago. Some missiles were able to penetrate Israel’s infamous Iron Dome, which is mainly focussed on smaller, non-ballistic projectiles fired by Hamas and Hezbollah. This move by the US then, for now, has to be seen as defensive in order to make sure Israeli targets are not hit by an Iranian attack, which would give the Israeli’s reason to retaliate more forcefully, something the US has been trying to prevent in order to prevent regional escalation. Strangely, this news of US involvement has gone largely under the radar, the EU and UN have not issued official responses. This shows the expansiveness of the current global geopolitical situation. The reason there has not been a response is most likely because many have missed it.
“The CIA, a Navy Seal and a $15M bounty. This alleged plot on Venezuela’s Maduro reads like a Hollywood script, for a reason”
In a bizarre event, Venezuelan authorities claim to have foiled a CIA plot to kill President Maduro. The Venezuelan government has arrested 15 people from different nations, among them a US Navy SEAL, who they claim were plotting against the president. The CIA has an infamous history of meddling in Latin American countries, most famously in El Salvador, Guatemala, and Chile. However, these latest arrests fit into a pattern of more recent history where the Maduro regime has arrested US citizens to gain leverage with the US government. After his very controversial reelection in July, Maduro probably wants to use these detainees to get the US off his back and relieve some of the sanctions against his regime. Maduro is making a calculated guess that with this move he can buy time until his inauguration in january and wait out the Western and Latin American protests against his reelection, hoping these will fade over the coming months as especially the West is more focussed on Ukraine, the Middle East and the US Presidential election.
“Russia captures key eastern Ukrainian town, exposing Kyiv’s critical vulnerabilities”
In Ukraine, Russian forces have captured the strategic town of Vuhledar, which lies at the nexus of the eastern and southern frontlines. The fall of Vuhledar came after another incredibly bloody battle after months of fighting, similar to the battles for Bachmut and Avdiivka. It is once again a setback for the Ukrainians. It is now also clear their opening of the front towards Kursk has not had the desired effect of forcing the Russians to withdraw troops elsewhere. Momentum has clearly shifted away from the Ukrainians and pressure within Ukraine seems to mount to start negotiating their way out of the war.
You can find an interactive map by the Institute for the Study of War here.
“Nobel peace prize awarded to Japanese atomic bomb survivors’ group”
The 2024 Nobel Peace Prize has been awarded to Nihon Hidankyo, an organisation consisting of Japanese citizens who survived the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and now focus their energy on ridding the world of nuclear weapons. This group of survivors have continuously shared their personal stories in order to turn public opinion against nuclear weapons. The Norwegian Committee awarding the prize said it did so because the ‘taboo’ on the use of nuclear weapons seems to be fading recently, indirectly referring to Russia and North Korea more openly threatening to use their nuclear weapons in recent times. The survivors of the bombings at the end of World War Two fear nuclear arsenals may grow once again because of the current geopolitical power struggles in the world and fear some leaders may actually be tempted to use nuclear weapons. Their organisation strives to create awareness and keep the number of nuclear weapons used against people throughout history on two.
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