Chinese foreign policy appears to have shifted in tone. This country’s embassies had previously hurled insults at ‘thug’ at citizens of their host countries, even going so far as to accuse them of having a ‘mental virus’. This type of diplomatic strategy has been called ‘Wolf Warrior’ diplomacy, and it has had destructive effects for Chinese soft power. In the vast majority of countries, people prefer having the US as the world’s leading power. It is notable that even in countries where US leadership is less popular, such as in Hungary, Russia or Italy, this preference against US leadership doesn’t translate into a preference for China. This trend is even more pronounced in China’s backyard: countries in the Asia Pacific overwhelmingly support having the US as a global power.
Recently though, the Wolf Warrior strategy appears to be reconsidered. In the meeting between Biden and Xi in November, they agreed on re-establishing military communication between the two countries, a useful tool in avoiding miscommunications that could lead to conflict. Xi noted that “The world was big enough for both countries, and the success of one is an opportunity for the other.” The improvements weren’t limited to ties with the United States. China is also increasingly opening up for other countries: since late November citizens from The Netherlands, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and Malaysia can visit China without a visa. At a supply chain expo, the Chinese delegation also emphasised the importance of keeping international trade lines open, claiming that they want trade with all countries.
Whether this new attitude reflects a genuine desire to reduce tensions or a Chinese needs for foreign capital now that foreign investment has slumped is not entirely clear, though it could of course be both. The Chinese economy has not made the same comeback we have seen in Western economies, which might explain part of China’s newly friendly position. Regardless, this is a positive change. Reduced tensions between two superpowers are a positive sign, even if they remain in competition.
That being said, there is a significant chance that this change might be much more short-lived than either China or the United States wants. On the 13th of January, Taiwan will hold elections, and the pro-independence candidate of the DPP, Lai Ching-te, has been consistently leading the polls.The opposition parties have attempted to form a joint ballot, but failed to agree on who would get what position before the November 24th deadline and will therefore be running separately. It is unlikely that they will be able to beat the DPP without joining forces. Lai’s running mate is Hsiao Bi-Khim, the former Taiwanese representative to the US. Even if Taiwan doesn’t declare independence, it is evident that these two will turn Taiwan even more to the West.
The question of Taiwan is something the Chinese government has historically given very little ground on. The sentiment that Taiwan is rightfully a part of China is expressed strongly and consistently. Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in August 2022 and the Chinese decision to respond with large-scale military drills shows that this sentiment has not decreased in recent years. Therefore, the upcoming elections will test China’s new foreign policy position. Will their commitment to peace and economic cooperation be stronger than their belief that Taiwan cannot decide its own destiny? Time will tell.
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